The back end of the Detroit Tigers lineup seems to be costing them run potential game after game. Let's take a look at what the Tigers bottom three hitters look like according to Baseball Prospectus' VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) statistic:
7) Brandon Inge -0.2 VORP
8) Gerald Laird -10.9 VORP
9) Adam Everett -5.9 VORP
VORP is measured in runs so if the Tabs just put fringe level Major League players in the last three spots in the order they would have scored 17 more runs than with Inge, Laird, and Everett in those spots. A general rule of thumb is every 10 runs is equal to 1 team win. By batting those below replacement players the Tigers have cost themselves 1.7 wins and we all know what 1 extra win would have gotten the Tabbies last year.
Let's take a look at the bottom three Tiger batters in a different context, TB/Out.
7) Brandon Inge .488 TB/Out
8) Gerald Laird .396 TB/Out
9) Adam Everett .348 TB/Out
These numbers also indicate poor production as half a total base per out is very average for a major leaguer. I believe as the season goes along Inge's TB/Out will rise above the 0.5 mark and eventually he will end up near 0.6 TB/Out. Laird and Everett on the other hand need to be replaced by more capable batters so that the Tigers do not lose any more run production than what a fringe level player could offer. In my opinion Alex Avila (.540 TB/Out) should replace Laird and Ramon "Big Time Charlie" Santiago (.581 TB/Out) should replace Everett on a regular basis. Let's hope Leyland and Dombrowski begin to realize how much the bottom portion of the order is hurting the Tabbies run production and make the change.
WALK STUDY UPDATE
Through 962 randomly charted MLB games, the team that takes more walks has won 652 of the games which is good for a .678 winning percentage. Over the course of a full 162 game season, a .678 winning percentage would amount to 110 wins and almost assuredly the best record in baseball.
Holla back with some comments and enjoy your weekend Kneesonbows nation!
Saturday, June 5, 2010
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Top Heavy Tabs
One must give Leyland credit for sending out the most effective lineup game after game. Here are the Tigers top 5 TB/Out contributors and their most frequent position in the lineup.
PLAYER TB/OUT Batting Pos.
1. Miguel Cabrera 1.10 4TH
2. Brennan Boesch 0.98 5TH
3. Magglio Ordonez 0.90 3RD
4. Johnny Damon 0.85 2ND
5. Austin Jackson 0.82 1ST
As you can see all five of the Tabs best hitters are in the top 5 of the lineup which allows them to get the majority of the team's plate appearances. Although this may seem like it's common sense, it is not always the case for managers to put their best hitters at the top of their order. For some reason that is not known to even the top scientists in the world managers will "go with their gut" and put players with inferior offensive skills in top half of the order while better batters are burried at the bottom of the order. In this aspect, Jim Leyland is thriving as the Tigers manager. I still believe, though, that he should set up the lineup in decreasing order of players' on-base percentage (OBP) as this way the team will make outs at the very slowest rate possible. This is important because outs are the "clock" in baseball and the quicker at team accumulates outs the quicker a team will reach its demise. In the Tigers' case, it would benefit them to bat Cabrera (.418 OBP) lead off, followed by Ordonez (.407), Damon (.393), Jackson (.393), and Ramon "Big Time Charlie" Santiago (.370). Carlos Guillen actually has an OBP of .391 but he is currently on the Disabled List. Leyland slotting Boesch (.362) in the 5th spot in the order can be justified though by his incredible contact to damage ratio which is seen in his amazing 0.98 TB/Out. All in all, I feel that Jim Leyland has set up his lineup to be very efficient in producing runs and keeping the "out clock" from expiring too quickly.
Observation of the day: As I continue to take in data on walks and their effect on winning or losing, a trend has emerged. I have charted 912 Major League Baseball games and the team that took more walks (gave up fewer walks) than their opponent won 620 of those games. That is good for a .680 winning percentage. To put that in to perspective, a team that has a .680 winning percentage for the season would win 110 games. 110 wins has only been achieved six times in the history of Major League Baseball. The ability to take and not give walks is extremely correlated to winning.
PLAYER TB/OUT Batting Pos.
1. Miguel Cabrera 1.10 4TH
2. Brennan Boesch 0.98 5TH
3. Magglio Ordonez 0.90 3RD
4. Johnny Damon 0.85 2ND
5. Austin Jackson 0.82 1ST
As you can see all five of the Tabs best hitters are in the top 5 of the lineup which allows them to get the majority of the team's plate appearances. Although this may seem like it's common sense, it is not always the case for managers to put their best hitters at the top of their order. For some reason that is not known to even the top scientists in the world managers will "go with their gut" and put players with inferior offensive skills in top half of the order while better batters are burried at the bottom of the order. In this aspect, Jim Leyland is thriving as the Tigers manager. I still believe, though, that he should set up the lineup in decreasing order of players' on-base percentage (OBP) as this way the team will make outs at the very slowest rate possible. This is important because outs are the "clock" in baseball and the quicker at team accumulates outs the quicker a team will reach its demise. In the Tigers' case, it would benefit them to bat Cabrera (.418 OBP) lead off, followed by Ordonez (.407), Damon (.393), Jackson (.393), and Ramon "Big Time Charlie" Santiago (.370). Carlos Guillen actually has an OBP of .391 but he is currently on the Disabled List. Leyland slotting Boesch (.362) in the 5th spot in the order can be justified though by his incredible contact to damage ratio which is seen in his amazing 0.98 TB/Out. All in all, I feel that Jim Leyland has set up his lineup to be very efficient in producing runs and keeping the "out clock" from expiring too quickly.
Observation of the day: As I continue to take in data on walks and their effect on winning or losing, a trend has emerged. I have charted 912 Major League Baseball games and the team that took more walks (gave up fewer walks) than their opponent won 620 of those games. That is good for a .680 winning percentage. To put that in to perspective, a team that has a .680 winning percentage for the season would win 110 games. 110 wins has only been achieved six times in the history of Major League Baseball. The ability to take and not give walks is extremely correlated to winning.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Sunday, April 25, 2010
Fightin' Illitchs on display today
Today is a big day for the Detroit sports scene as both the Tabs and Wings are in action this afternoon. I wish I could be at Hockeytown or Chelli's to watch both of them simultaneously but I gotta put up with my stylish crib in Pittsburgh. My thumb will be sore from all the switching back in forth between the two games but 2 wins would be a cure for that.
A new rule has been added to the Rod Allen Game. Everytime Rod says Action Jackson, 11 drinks are awarded. This rule will be permanently put into the game by the all star break when the new RADG Champions Edition comes out.
Enjoy the games today folks. Let's Go Fightin Illitchs!! Holla at some victory Knees on Bows!
A new rule has been added to the Rod Allen Game. Everytime Rod says Action Jackson, 11 drinks are awarded. This rule will be permanently put into the game by the all star break when the new RADG Champions Edition comes out.
Enjoy the games today folks. Let's Go Fightin Illitchs!! Holla at some victory Knees on Bows!
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
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